AI: A year in reflection

Examining the crucible moments of 2023

Between 2017 to 2022, I frequently presented to various audiences my perspective on AI as an exponentially growing technology.

Most people struggle with grasping exponential growth due to its non-linear nature, which conflicts with our innate linear thinking.

We assume that what’s true now will more or less remain true 3, 4, or 5 years ahead.

To elucidate this concept, I’d like to recount a story about the invention of chess, which, though its authenticity as the game’s origin is uncertain, effectively illustrates exponential growth.

A wise man invents a game of chess and presents it to his king.

The king, impressed by the game, asks the wise man what he would like as a reward. The wise man, appearing modest, asks for a seemingly simple reward: a grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, two grains on the second, four on the third, and so on, doubling the amount on each subsequent square for all 64 squares of the chessboard.

The king, underestimating the power of exponential growth, quickly agrees, only to discover that the total amount of rice required is far more than anticipated. By the time you reach the 64th square, the number of grains is 2⁶³ — over 18 quintillion…